Tuesday, May 11

Twilio is up 300 percent in a year, but chart analyst sees FOMO rally

One cloud tech stock has risen further and faster than all the rest.

Twilio has surged more than 300 percent in 12 months, miles ahead of double-digt gains by Adobe, Workday and Salesforce.

Blue Line Futures’ Bill Baruch says it might be too late to jump into the stock now.

“Don’t simply chase this stock because of FOMO [fear of missing out]. I’d rather miss a move than chase something,” Baruch said on CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Wednesday. “Yes, Twilio is strong. It broke out above a potential ‘butting bearish wedge’ and that breakout level is going to be support above that trend line. Still, though, I wouldn’t chase this.”

On top of its 12-month surge, the stock has risen 20 percent just this year and reached record highs as recently as this week. A “butting bearish wedge” is formed when a trading range narrows as prices rise — Twilio broke out of this bearish channel earlier this year.

Instead of getting in now, Baruch is waiting for the cloud software stock to come back down to a more attractive entry point.

“It is out above the 50-day, 100-day, 200-day moving averages, but I’d wait for a little bit of a pullback coming into there. Look at a retracement,” said Baruch. Around “$85 or $90 – that’s where you’re going to find value in the stock rather than just chasing it.”

The bottom end of that range at $85 represents a 21 percent drop from Wednesday’s close of $106.87. Twilio first broke above that level last September.

Stacey Gilbert, head of derivative strategy at Susquehanna, says the stock is likely to continue its upward sprint based on market activity.

“Options are the market’s best guess of where the stock is going to be in the future, it’s the positioning of the future, and that remains bullish,” Gilbert said on “Trading Nation” on Wednesday. “So while the stock may be pulling back a little bit [on Wednesday] as a knee-jerk reaction and some profit-taking, I’d make an argument that the sentiment overall remains bullish.”

Twilio fell 7 percent on Wednesday after topping fourth-quarter earnings estimates, but falling short on first-quarter guidance.

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